5 December 2023 – Amid some controversy, COP28 has started and so far, world leaders have pledged to set up a damage fund and agreed to a Decarbonisation Charter on energy.
When it was announced that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) would host this year’s COP, many activists criticised the decision. Being one of the top 10 oil producing countries, it was questioned how the UAE could argue for the phase out of fossil fuels if their economy is built on oil production.
After the head of the state’s oil company, ADNOC, was appointed the COP president, more criticism flew in. Last week news broke that the UAE planned to use COP meetings to make new oil and gas deals with other countries.
However, the climate conference went ahead as planned, and so far world leaders have agreed to create a loss and damage fund and countries and oil companies agreed to a Decarbonisation Charter.
Damage Fund To Support Poor Countries With Climate Impacts
In a surprise move, the COP28 president, Sultan al Jaber, has put the decision about the creation of a damage fund on the agenda for the first day. Normally, such deals are only announced at the last minute, after days of negotiations.
It has been well documented that poorer countries and communities are most affected by the impacts of climate change. And with richer countries emitting considerably more greenhouse gases, poorer countries have long called for a fund to be set up to support them with the damages caused by climate change-related weather events.
And it seems COP28 has delivered on this issue, which has been discussed for 30 years. The countries, including the UK, US and EU, have pledged a total of $400m for poor countries affected by climate change.
The UAE pledged $100m themselves, so did Germany. The US has agreed to pay $17m. The UK has promised to contribute £60m to the loss and damage fund.
While this agreement has been hailed as making history by Mr al Jaber, countries actually agreed to set up such a fund last year at COP27. Details were discussed hotly over the past year and a tentative agreement was achieved a few weeks before the start of COP28.
However, this doesn’t take anything away from the importance of this agreement and what it will mean to the poorest communities who suffer the most.
Decarbonisation Charter
Another pledge that has been made during the first few days of COP28: countries and oil companies vowed to stop adding to greenhouse gas emissions and to increase the use of renewable energy.
The pledge to treble the use of renewable energy by 2030 was made by over 100 countries. While 50 oil and gas companies have pledged to become net-zero, which means not adding any greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, by 2050.
The latter pledge only covers the emissions that are released during gas and oil production, but not those from burning fossil fuels, such as by driving cars or heating homes. However, the COP28 team argued that the first pledge will help with reducing those emissions.
It is undoubtably great news that over 100 countries have signed up to this ambitious renewable energy pledge. But some big polluters, such as India, China, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey, haven’t signed up.
That said, China is currently boosting renewable energy developments and might meet the pledge despite not having singed up.
However, some have been critical of these pledges. Even the head of the Dubai-based Internainal Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), has cast doubt over the feasibility of trebling renewable energy use by 2030.
He said it would take a “cyclopedic effort” to achieve the target, because the world has left it too late, which means the infrastructure is not ready.
Currently, the world is on course to double the use of renewable energy by 2030.
Controversy Continues To Haunt COP28
Despite these positive announcements, controversy hasn’t left COP28. Campaigners have said that 2,456 people connected to the fossil fuel industry are registered to attend COP28 talks.
This number has increased fourfold since COP27. However, this sharp increase will partly be due to the changed registration requirements for COP28.
Campaigners and activists have criticised the presence of such a huge number of fossil fuel lobbyists because they are likely to try and influence the outcome of the climate conference. Campaigners believe these lobbyists will try and prevent the agreement on the phase out of fossil fuels.
The COP28 president has also courted controversy again by seeming to deny scientific evidence that the phase out of fossil fuels is necessary to meet the 1.5°C target.
There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.
Sultan al Jaber, COP28 President during an online event on 21 November
Mr al Jabar was forced to defend himself after a backlash caused by his comments. He sought to clarify his statement by saying:
Science has been central to my own career progress and yes, I respect science in everything I do. I have said over and over that the phase down and the phase out of fossil fuel is inevitable.
Sultan al Jaber, COP28 President
But that’s not all. The BBC has reported that the UAE is planning to hugely increase their oil production. Rystad Energy, whose oil market intelligence is wildly used and trusted, has suggested this after their analysis of various data.
According to this analysis, ADNOC’s oil production could increase by 42% by 2030 and produce 1.5bn barrels of oil per year. After that, production is likely to decline. But the report suggests that by 2050 the UAE’s oil company would still produce 850 million barrels per year.
However, ADNOC has said that it will only increase their capacity by 7% in the next four years. The projection in the analysis only shows what the potential is, which is not what is planned.
Our Opinion
While the agreements that have so far been made at COP28 are good news, we believe it’s too early to celebrate. For one, we don’t yet know which of the agreements will make it into the final text agreed by all attending nations and what the actual wording will be.
The loss and damage fund in particular is a step in the right direction, but will it really happen? And how much will countries contribute in the end?
This has always been an issue. Agreements are made, but when it comes to spelling them out in the final text they have been watered down or even left out.
And of course, any agreement that makes it into the final text is only worth so much. If countries don’t implement the measures needed to achieve the agreements, nothing will change.
While COPs are vital, because they bring together such a huge number of world leaders, the will and desire to make things happen still needs to be in every single one of them.
And what we have heard from the UAE over the past days and weeks shows they are not yet ready to phase out fossil fuels, one of the most important things the world needs to do.
