29 August 2023 – This year is not yet over, and already we have had record-beating heatwaves, wildfires and floods across the globe. Scientists warn that these extreme weather events could become the norm within a decade if we don’t act now.
This July was the hottest month ever recorded, and the extreme temperatures have caused immense suffering for people around the world, with many lives lost.
Wildfires have raged across Europe, Aisa, North and South America, with devastating consequences for wildlife and humans. Floods have also covered most of the globe this year and still do, with no end in sight.
Scientists told the Guardian that these extreme weather events will become the norm without drastic climate action. They also warn that what we see now is only the tip of the iceberg; worse is still to come.
Carbon Emissions And El Niño Create Record Extreme Weather Events
2023 is a record-busting year, with record-breaking heatwaves all over the world. Flooding and wildfires are more intense and impactful than ever.
The record air and ocean temperatures we have seen are driven by two factors: greenhouse gas emissions and natural climate events such as El Niño.
Carbon emissions caused by human activity is the main factor, scientists say, as they have caused temperatures to rise faster than for thousands of years. With more and more greenhouse gases in our atmosphere global warming will continue to accelerate, unless we act now.
At the beginning of July 2023, the World Meterological Organization (WMO) declared that we have entered the El Niño phase. This natural weather phenomenon warms the sea surface temperature and occurs every few years.
While its counterpart, El Niña, cools down the air temperature, El Niño heats it. That’s why we have seen such record-breaking heatwaves this year, scientists say.
However, the scientists who spoke to the Guardian have also said that the trajectory of the rise in temperatures is in line with projections from the last three decades.
While some of the records being set in 2023 are just crazy off-the-charts, everything is actually tracking within the range of projections of how Earth would respond to increasing greenhouse gas emissions – projections we’ve had now for the last 30-plus years.
Prof Matthew England, University of New South Wales, Australia
So while it might feel that temperatures have suddenly and unexpectedly risen sharply, scientists say this is not so. A jump in temperatures was always expected to happen when we enter an El Niño phase.
But this does not mean that there is no urgency. All climate change models predict that unless we take drastic climate actions, these extreme weather events will become the norm, with worse to come.
We Still Have A “Tiny Window” Of Opportunity
While all this sounds very bad indeed, there is a glimmer of hope. The scientists say that we have not yet passed the tipping point, so there is still time to act.
However, the window of opportunity is now tiny and might soon shut forever. And the scientists make very clear what the main action has to be: stop burning fossil fuels.
We need to stop burning fossil fuels. Now. Not some time when we’ve allowed companies to make all the money they possibly can.
Dr Friederike Otto, Imperial College London
If we don’t take drastic climate action, the extreme weather events we have seen this year will become the norm within a decade, the scientists warn.
And worse is still to come. While scientists are able to predict the rise in temperature, what they can’t predict easily is what impact these higher temperatures will have. This means they can’t predict extreme weather events.
But what they are sure about is that it will get worse. This is a scary position to be in, because it means that we can’t prepare for what’s ahead. As one scientist put it: “we are flying partially blind” into the future.
We have all the tools needed to stop temperatures from continuing to climb, but we don’t use them. World leaders around the world have to stop making empty promises and act to protect our planet.
The transformation that is needed is a fundamental one, and it has to happen quickly. But governments around the globe seem reluctant to tackle the problem. Some indeed even consider developing new oil and gas fields.
We need leaders that think long term, rather than just to the next election, and are prepared to take drastic action now. Otherwise, the extreme weather events we have seen this year will become the norm, with worse just around the corner.
So unless we elect leaders that are willing to do what’s needed, our children might not have a future. Only pressure from civil societies around the world can force governments to act, so let’s make it happen.
