12 September 2023 – The UN has released the long-awaited Global Stocktake Report which reviews the progress the world has made since the Paris Agreement was ratified. The key finding of the review is that radical changes are needed if the world is to achieve its climate targets.
196 nations have signed the Paris Climate Agreement, in which the signatory countries pledged to keep global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This was in 2015.
Now, the UN has reviewed the progress the world has made since then and published its findings in its Global Stocktake Report. While the report acknowledges that progress has been made, it also warns that more ambitious action has to be taken to achieve the climate targets.
Drastic and rapid changes in all areas of our lives are needed, if we want to tackle climate change. This includes travel, our diet, energy use and more generally the way our world works, the report says.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Still Over 20 Gigatonnes Higher
The report looked at the climate measures put in place by the various countries and found that more needs to be done if we are to avert climate disaster. It warns that currently, the world is on course to warm by around 2.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This can only be prevented, the report says, if we can achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, compared with 2019 levels. And by 2050, the world has to achieve net-zero carbon emissions.
The report calculated that with the current pledges countries have made, the carbon dioxide emissions are still between 20.3 and 29.3 gigatonnes higher than what is needed to stay below 1.5°C in 2030.
The Global Stocktake Report makes it very clear that we only have a small window to act in. And what it calls for is a “phase out” of all unabated oil, gas and coal, which not every country will want to hear.
[…] overall, the report finds there are more gaps than progress – gaps that can only be erased by transformational change across systems like energy, food, land and transport. The future of our planet depends on whether national leaders use this stark assessment as a catalyst for bold systems transformation.
Ani Dasgupta, Head of the World Resources Institute
With carbon dioxide emissions being the main driver for climate change, it is no wonder that the report calls for “radical decarbonisation”. Phasing out fossil fuels without carbon capture fast is seen as the only way forward by many scientists.
There were also some positive points in the report, such as the adaptation of renewable energy and electric vehicles. However, even in these areas more needs to be done.
Global Stocktake Report As Basis For Discussion At COP28
One of the aims of the stocktake report is to ensure governments will make more ambitious plans to cut carbon than they have done to date. But the report will also form the basis for discussion at the next climate conference, COP28.
COP28 will be held in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates in November this year, one of the major oil producing nations. During COP27 last year, an agreement on phasing out all unabated fossil fuels could not be reached because several major oil producing countries put up resistance.
The decision to hold COP28 in Dubai has been criticised, because the UAE are one of the major oil and gas producers. The conference chair, Sultan Al Jaber, is also head of Adnoc, the UAE national oil company.
Many campaigners say that there is a conflict of interest, given that the company is planning to expand its production capacity. Adnoc has also sent large numbers of its executives to COP27 last year.
The concern of climate campaigners is that these lobbyists for the oil and gas industry could stall the efforts to phase out fossil fuels and meet the climate targets. Especially, because at COP27, these lobbyists didn’t make clear their affiliation to the fossil fuel industry.
This will be different at COP28. The UN has moved to make everyone registering for the summit to declare their affiliation, which will ensure transparency. However, many campaigners see it only as the first step and want the UN to exclude fossil fuel companies from the climate conference.
The UN believes that the Global Stocktake Report will put pressure on all nations, including the oil and gas producing countries, to agree on a major statement at COP28.
I urge governments to carefully study the findings of the report and ultimately understand what it means for them and the ambitious action they must take next.
Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change
Whether the report will prove to be a wake-up call for the governments of the world remains to be seen. All we can hope is that this time the climate summit will be able to get all countries to agree to phase out fossil fuels now.
