10 October 2023 – This year has seen the hottest July as well as the warmest September ever recorded. Now analysis by the BBC has revealed that the world has breached 1.5°C on 86 days in 2023 so far.
In 2015, world leaders signed the Paris Agreement, in which they agreed to keep the earth’s temperature well below 2°C and to do everything possible to keep it below 1.5°C.
The temperature thresholds refer to the temperature difference between pre-industrial levels and now. Even though the world has breached 1.5°C on 86 days this year so far, this doesn’t mean the Paris Agreement has been breached.
The agreement covers the long-term, which means the world can’t be above the limit for a 20 or 30-year average. At the moment, the earth is around 1.1°C to 1.2°C above pre-industrial level as an average long-term.
However, scientists are concerned about the increase in the number of days per year the threshold has been breached, as it is a sign that we are getting closer to exceeding the limit long-term.
2023 Could Become The Hottest Year Ever Recorded
July 2023 was officially the hottest July ever recorded and now September has been confirmed as the warmest September on record. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, this September was 0.93°C warmer than what is normal for this month.
The last time September produced record high temperatures was in 2020, when it was by 0.5°C warmer than average September temperatures. The sharp increase seen this September has shocked scientists.
The unprecedented temperatures for the time of year observed in September – following a record summer – have broken records by an extraordinary amount.
Dr Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director at the Copernicus Climate Change Service
The regional differences between the average September temperatures and this year differ widely. In Europe, September 2023 was 2.51°C warmer than the long-term average.
After an already record-breaking summer, scientists believe that 2023 will become the hottest year ever recorded, with 2024 potentially even hotter.
This September wasn’t just the hottest September ever: it also breached the 1.5°C, being 1.75°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. Since records began, no month has ever reached such high temperatures above pre-industrial levels.
While this is of great concern to scientists, they don’t expect the whole year to breach 1.5°C. Even though October is likely to also be warmer than average, with unseasonal warm weather prevailing in several locations, including the UK.
But scientists are worried that the number of days the world has breached 1.5°C is increasing, because it sets us on the path to breaching the agreed limits long-term, which would be a breach of the Paris Agreement.
The fact that we are reaching this 1.5C anomaly daily, and for a longer number of days, is concerning.
Dr Melissa Lazenby, University of Sussex
The last record number of days breaching the limit happened back in 2016, when 75 days across the year were above 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels.
El Niño And Human Activities Combined
While scientists are very clear that human activities, mainly burning fossil fuels, are responsible for the increasing temperatures, natural weather events also have an impact.
When the world breached 1.5°C for a record number of days a year the last time, in 2016, a strong El Niño influenced the weather on earth. This natural weather phenomenon occurs every few years and increases the surface temperatures.
During this event, warm waters rise up off the coast of South America. From there, they spread across the ocean, releasing heat into our atmosphere. This will then drive surface temperatures up.
In June this year, scientists confirmed that we have entered another El Niño phase, which contributes to the rising temperatures. However, it is still weaker than the El Niño at its peak in 2016.
This is worrying, given that despite this we have already had more days breaching the limit this year than in 2016. Because record temperatures normally occur a year after a powerful El Niño event, scientists believe that 2024 will become the hottest year yet recorded.
Our Opinion
While the El Niño phenomenon plays a part in the record temperatures we have seen this year and are likely to see next year, this natural weather event has been occurring for thousands of years.
But with the industrial revolution, we have started to pump carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into our atmosphere, which heat up surface temperatures. The combination of our human activity and the El Niño event supercharge the warming of the planet.
But while El Niño will disappear again, the greenhouse gases and our activity don’t. On the contrary, we seem to pump more and more of these gases into our atmosphere every year. And that’s the problem.
We have to drastically reduce our carbon emissions, but it seems to me that governments around the world don’t take the situation seriously enough. The world has breached 1.5°C for a third of days this year so far, which is very worrying.
Only if governments around the world, including here in the UK, put serious green policies in place, can we avert a climate catastrophe. And we are running out of time.
