24 October 2023 – The global energy watchdog predicts that by 2030 renewable energy will provide 50% of the electricity worldwide. But despite this progress on renewables, it warned that carbon emissions are still too high to avert a climate catastrophe.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its yearly World Energy Outlook (WEO) report, in which the global energy watchdog analyses the world’s energy system. It predicts that the demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2030 and then start to fall.
At the same time, the report also forecasts that renewable energy will provide half of all electricity by 2030. This is quite a change from forecasts made 10 to 15 years ago and shows that we can turn things around.
However, the IEA also warns that despite the progress on renewables, the world is still on course to reach global temperatures of 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Progress On Renewables Means Shift Away From Fossil Fuels Now “Unstoppable”
The IEA predicts that by 2030 half of the world’s electricity will be produced by renewable energy, such as solar or wind power. At the same time, the demand for fossil fuels will reach its peak and decline thereafter.
This means that the world is set to end the use of fossil fuels for electricity and permanently move to clean energy.
The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ – and the sooner the better for all of us.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA
The International Energy Agency came to this conclusion after carefully analysing the current laws and policies in the different countries across the world. Based on this analysis, the IEA also expects that by 2030 the number of electric cars on our roads will rise to almost 10 times as many as now.
By this point, the energy watchdog also believes that electric heating systems, such as heat pumps, will outsell fossil fuel boilers. And investment into new offshore wind projects will be three times as much as investment for new fossil fuel plants.
As a result of the progress on renewables and electric car distribution, the WEO report 2023 predicts that global greenhouse gas emissions will peak in 2025 and then start to fall. This is vital if the world is to keep below 1.5°C above pre-industrial level as per the Paris Agreement.
Emissions Still Too High Despite Progress
However, despite the progress the world has made and the dramatic shift away from fossil fuels, the IEA also issued a warning. The greenhouse gas emissions are still too high to keep the global temperatures below 1.5°C.
One reason for this warning is that the investment in fossil fuels is still too high. The report said that it needs to be halved, if we are to reach net-zero and met the Paris Agreement threshold.
Despite the progress already made, the IAE estimates that we are on course to reach global temperatures of 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. While the report acknowledged that fossil fuels will continue to play a part in the world’s economy, the current investment levels are just too high.
The report calls on governments, businesses and investors to get behind clean energy and says this is the only way to ensure energy security.
Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them. […] claims that oil and gas represent safe or secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future look weaker than ever.
Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA
This contradicts claims made by the UK government, that the licensing of new gas and oil fields was needed to ensure energy security for the British people and keep bills down.
So while the IEA report has given us some good news, such as the progress on renewable energy, it also shows that there is still a lot to do and quickly.
Our Opinion
What this report illustrates is that we have it in our power to turn things around and prevent a climate disaster. But it also shows that we are dragging our feet.
It’s not the first report by experts who are telling us that we need to act more quickly and more dramatically. But somehow the message doesn’t seem to get through to the world leaders.
Look at the UK: the Prime Minister has recently watered down the government’s green policies, risking the country meeting its 2050 net-zero target. He has also not long ago announced that the government will give out licences to new oil and gas fields.
Despite all the scientists saying that we cannot open new fossil fuel plants if we want to meet the Paris Agreement. We need leaders who are prepared to make the right decisions for our planet.
What we don’t need, in our opinion, are leaders who are only thinking short-term, meaning to the next general election and how they can win it. But that’s what the UK currently has got.
The window to act is becoming smaller and smaller. And unless the world stops being greedy for money and power and does what’s need doing, it might close before we get the chance to avert a climate catastrophe.
