31 October 2023 – A new report will make the hair stand up on the back of the neck of many climate activists and other concerned people. There is a chance that the world will breach 1.5°C sooner than initially thought.
Halloween is a favourite time for many, not just for children. Halloween parties, scary party food and most of all, horror movies are all part of the fun.
But a new report by researchers at Imperial College London has just made this year’s Halloween a whole lot scarier. They say the window to avert a climate catastrophe is smaller than initially thought.
According to their calculations, the world might breach 1.5°C twice as fast as originally thought. We could exceed this crucial threshold as soon as 2029, and not only in the mid 2030s.
Record Emissions In Past Three Years Shrunk Carbon Budget
In order to predict when we will breach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, scientists have calculated the world’s carbon budget. This shows us how many carbon emissions we can release but still keep within the threshold of 1.5°C, as per the Paris Agreement.
Until now, it was thought that if we only release an additional 500bn tonnes of carbon, we have a 50% chance to stay below the threshold. At the current level of emissions, this would mean the world is set to exceed 1.5°C by the mid 2030s, according to the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
However, the IPCC only used data up to 2020 for their prediction. The new research included the carbon emissions from the past three years. In all three years the amount of emissions was a new record.
As a result, the new report has adjusted the budget, which meant it had to be halved. To now keep a 50% chance of keeping global warming below the 1.5°C threshold, we can only emit 250bn tonnes.
This means that if we don’t reduce our emissions drastically, we will breach 1.5°C as soon as 2029. To keep our chance to keep within the threshold at 50%, the world will have to reach net-zero by 2034.
The window to avoid 1.5C of warming is shrinking, because we continue to emit and because of our improved understanding of atmospheric physics. We now estimate that we can only afford to release about six years worth of current emissions before we are likely to exceed this key Paris agreement reference point.
Dr Robin Lamboll, Lead Author of Study at Imperial College London
So the message is clear: the world needs to drastically reduce carbon emissions and quickly if we want to avert a climate catastrophe.
Current Climate Targets Not Enough
In order for the world to keep to Paris Agreement, the governments and leaders of all the countries have to do their bit. However, the climate targets set by the vast majority just won’t cut it. Especially, after the findings of the new report.
The UN target is to achieve net-zero by 2050, while halving emissions by 2030. The researchers calculated that if the world would meet this target, there would be a 40% chance of exceeding 1.5°C. This means it would be highly likely that we would breach the limit.
That’s not good news at all and it gets worse. While many countries have modelled their targets on the UN aims, including the UK, not all have done so.
China and Russia aim to achieve net-zero by 2060 and India has set 2070 as their target, according to the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit‘s Net Zero Scorecard.
All these countries are among the biggest carbon emitters. The oil states Kuwait and Bahrain have pledged to become net-zero by 2060 and the United Arab Emirates by 2050.
There are countries who have set themselves more ambitious targets:
- Maldives: 2030
- Barbados: 2030
- Dominica: 2030
- Finland: 2035
- Austria: 2040
- Iceland: 2040
- Germany: 2045
- Sweden: 2045
There is also a big difference in terms of commitment to these targets. The EU, USA, UK, Japan, New Zealand and some other countries have enshrined these targets into their laws.
This means they are legally obliged to achieve them. In total 27 countries are legally obliged to meet their climate targets. Actually, there are 42, because all EU countries are bound by an EU law.
Other countries, such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and the UAE have drawn up policy documents setting the climate targets.
While this doesn’t make meeting them legally binding, the targets are at least embedded in policies. 52 countries have added their net-zero targets to their policy documents.
Then there are 8 countries that have declared or pledged to meet the targets they have set, including Kuwait, Bahrain, South Africa and Sri Lanka.
The majority of countries, 58, have only proposed net-zero targets or are discussing them, including Mexico, Israel and Jamaica.
This data shows the world is still a far way off to reach net-zero. And given the most recent report, this is a true horror story. Unfortunately, it’s not just some fun for Halloween; it could change our life on earth forever for the worst.
Our Opinion
The scientists and researchers have been warning us for decades about global warming and climate change. We decided to ignore them. But now, the window to act is shrinking fast and still, we don’t seem to take the warning seriously enough.
Yes, we have made progress. Renewable energy is set to become the main energy source. Electric cars and low-emissions heating systems are installed at pace in many countries. As a society we have become much more aware of the consequences of our actions.
Yet, the amount of emissions is rising not sinking. The last three years have seen record-breaking levels and this year is likely to be another big hitter. Rather than reducing our use of fossil fuels, we actually increase it.
And we don’t have to look far for evidence of that. The UK Prime Minister has not long ago announced that the government is planning to give out new licences for gas and oil fields in the North Sea. He has also scaled back many of the climate targets in order to gain votes at the next general election and thereby risking the UK missing its 2050 net-zero targets.
This is just not good enough. We know what we need to do, and we have to do it. If we want our children and grandchildren to have a future, we have to act now. Even the biggest Halloween fans won’t want such a scary future to look forward to.
