12 December 2023 – Today COP28 is due to conclude. However, it is not yet clear if there will be a deal that all nations are willing to sign, which is how a UN climate conference should end.
This year’s UN climate conference has had its share of controversy, with many asking if an oil producing country should and could successfully host it. Despite some initial positive announcements, one question remains: will there be a deal at the end?
COP28 is about to conclude, which means all nations have to agree to the final deal that will guide the world to keep within the agreed 1.5°C limit. If not all nations agree, there won’t be a deal.
The first draft has now been released and has caused a huge backlash for the wording of the text not being strong enough. This means negotiations will have to continue and are likely to go on after today.
Fossil Fuels At Centre Of COP28
With 2023 likely to be the hottest year on record, this year’s COP’s success will depend on the ability to reach a consensus regarding fossil fuels. The science is clear: we have to stop burning fossil fuels in order to avert a dangerous breakdown of the climate.
However, there is a big problem. Rich countries, such as the EU, UK and US want to phase out fossil fuels. So do poor countries who are affected the most by climate change, such as island nations, who risk loosing more land if global warming continues to cause sea levels to rise.
Rich countries, whose economies are based on fossil fuels, such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, push back against this. After all, they don’t want to give up their main source of income.
Some developing nations also don’t want a phase out of fossil fuels, as the costs involved to transition to renewable energy are just not achievable for them. Support from richer nations isn’t really forthcoming either.
So far, no COP was able to solve the problem, with fossil fuels not even being mentioned in any of the deals that has been agreed.
And it’s debatable if this year’s COP can, even if the appetite for the phase out of fossil fuels is growing around the world. The simple reason is that the host nation, the UEA, is one of the top oil producing countries.
While Sultan Al Jaber, this year’s president of COP, has said that he backs a phase out, he also seemed to deny that the science proves that a phase out is necessary. Reaching an agreement will be tough and might not be possible.
Draft Text Sparks Anger
Yesterday evening the COP28 team released a draft text, which has sparked anger in many camps. The wording is such that it’s unlikely it would lead to any meaningful action that will keep global temperatures to the agreed 1.5°C limit.
Rather than talking about a phase out of fossil fuels, the draft text mentions a reduction of production and consumption of fossil fuels. Because the text doesn’t contain a commitment to fully phase out fossil fuels, many countries won’t sign it.
We will not sign our death certificate. We cannot sign on to text that does not have strong commitments on phasing out fossil fuels.
Cedric Schuster of Samoa, Chair of the Alliance of Small Island States
The EU, UK and US have also said they would not sign the draft text unless the wording on fossil fuels is strengthened, with the EU threatening to walk away if the improvement wasn’t forthcoming.
There is another word in the text that has caused outrage among many countries, which is “could”. The way the word is used makes the called-for reduction optional. This means that fossil fuel producing countries can decide if they want to reduce production or not.
This one word renders the whole text useless in the eyes of many commentators and attendees.
That one word ‘could’ just kills everything. We can’t accept this text. It’s not anywhere near ambitious enough. It’s not broad enough. It’s not what parties have been calling for … we have to stitch climate justice into every part of this text and we are not anywhere near that yet.
Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s Environment Minister and EU Negotiator
On the other side, oil producing nations will be thrilled and relieved about the language used and will continue to push to prevent the text from mentioning a phase out of fossil fuels. This will make reaching an agreement incredibly difficult, if not impossible.
Our Opinion
We here at EcoHomeLife were sceptic about COP28 from the start. The host nation, the UAE, is one of the top oil-producing countries and their economy depends on fossil fuels.
And the president they have appointed is the head of the country’s oil company, which means he has two roles with conflicting interests. We have seen how serious the UEA is taking the issue of climate change.
Briefing documents that have been leaked have shown that the UEA COP team was planning to use the meetings with other countries to secure oil and gas deals. Rather than reducing their production capacity, they are looking to increase it.
What does give us some small hope is that fossil fuels made it into the text at all. This is the first time and is vital if we want to prevent a climate catastrophe. That countries like the EU and US are also pushing for strong wording on this issue is a positive sign.
But there is still too much pushback, which makes reaching an agreement very difficult indeed. And that’s what the world needs, an agreement to do whatever it takes to keep within the 1.5°C limit.
